The Wave!

November 03, 2006

When Did the Wave Start Building?

The generic congressional ballot doesn't necessarily tell us who will control the House after next week's elections (though one study says it's a good predictor.) But if a Democratic tidal wave is about to flush Republicans out, this chart probably shows us when it started forming.

"The generic ballot measure of the House has surged up and not stopped rising since September 22. The surge began the week in which the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) appeared, followed by Bob Woodward's book, State of Denial. A week later the Foley scandal broke, adding to the move that began a week earlier.

"The week or so before the NIE was published there was a small trend in the Republican direction which was remarked on in political news, but this very modest movement was abruptly revered. I would not have thought the NIE or Woodward revelations would have had much effect on mass public opinion, but the timing here is pretty convincing that these did in fact play a role."

[Also from Politicalwire.com.]